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Market Assessment & Forecasting

An accurate commercial opportunity assessment is integral to any successful business plan for pipeline or in-line assets. However, accuracy is subjective and depends on market uncertainties caused by evolving epidemiological, clinical, regulatory, reimbursement and competitive dynamics. A single-point deterministic market sizing and forecast model-based approach is inadequate to capture these uncertainties. EVERSANA specializes in providing quality to such business plans by capturing the full range of forecasts. This, we achieve by employing a scenario-based probabilistic approach to market sizing and forecasting, including:

  • Conducting in-depth qualitative and statistically rigorous quantitative assessments with relevant stakeholders covering all aspects of market sizing and forecast contributors
  • Using these assessments to look at the relative contribution of controllable and uncontrollable factors
  • Combining these factors into plausible scenarios with assigned probabilities to arrive at a full range of size and forecast, including upside and downside cases

We perform this analysis by segment including patient sub-populations, practice setting and country (in regional studies), to determine the relative contribution of each, enabling us to prioritize sources of value.

This rational and effective approach of looking at an uncertain future and enabling our clients to make decisions with quality is based on pioneering work done by our senior leadership in collaboration with Stanford University. The approach has helped us provide pharmaceutical and med tech companies with unusually comprehensive commercial opportunity assessments within Asia Pacific and global markets.

Our Case Studies

Opportunity Assessment of an R&D Stage Asset in the APAC

A global pharma company wished to assess the opportunity size in key APAC markets for its oncology development asset. EVERSANA consultants interviewed KOLs to understand the patient journey, treatment pathways and unmet needs. We assessed the range of peak patient shares based on the TPP feedback and relevant uncertainties such as competitive landscape, pricing potential, reimbursement restrictions, etc. to calculate the range of revenue forecasts.

Opportunity Assessment of an R&D Stage Asset in the U.S. and EU5 for a Japanese Pharma Company

A Japanese client was developing an asset with a new mechanism of action for ophthalmologic indications, and wished to forecast its potential in the U.S. and EU5 markets. EVERSANA consultants conducted KOL interviews to study the disease landscape, patient journey and unmet needs, and assessed the various scenarios of TPP achievement. EVERSANA consultants also conducted payer interviews to determine the pricing potential of the asset. Based on the important sources of risk, we created future scenarios, and calculated the revenue forecast for each scenario.

Opportunity Assessment for an R&D Stage Drug for Rare Indication in Key APAC Markets

A global pharma company was developing an asset with a new mechanism of action for a rare neurology indication. It wished to assess its market potential in APAC markets. Due to the rare nature of the indication, publicly available data was scarce, and the treatment paradigm was undeveloped and uncertain. We used our proprietary methodologies to assess the key drivers of risk, along with value added market research with KOLs and payers to help them with the range of revenue forecasts.

Opportunity Assessment of a Novel Infusion Device in APAC Markets

A leading global device manufacturer wished to assess the potential for a novel infusion device in APAC markets. We studied the acceptability of the device among the key stakeholders across customer segments, and assessed its peak market share given its price and competitive scenarios to calculate the range of revenue forecasts.

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