An accurate commercial opportunity assessment is integral to any successful business plan for pipeline or in-line assets. However, accuracy is subjective and depends on market uncertainties caused by evolving epidemiological, clinical, regulatory, reimbursement and competitive dynamics. A single-point deterministic market sizing and forecast model-based approach is inadequate to capture these uncertainties. EVERSANA specializes in providing quality to such business plans by capturing the full range of forecasts. This, we achieve by employing a scenario-based probabilistic approach to market sizing and forecasting, including:
- Conducting in-depth qualitative and statistically rigorous quantitative assessments with relevant stakeholders covering all aspects of market sizing and forecast contributors
- Using these assessments to look at the relative contribution of controllable and uncontrollable factors
- Combining these factors into plausible scenarios with assigned probabilities to arrive at a full range of size and forecast, including upside and downside cases
We perform this analysis by segment including patient sub-populations, practice setting and country (in regional studies), to determine the relative contribution of each, enabling us to prioritize sources of value.
This rational and effective approach of looking at an uncertain future and enabling our clients to make decisions with quality is based on pioneering work done by our senior leadership in collaboration with Stanford University. The approach has helped us provide pharmaceutical and med tech companies with unusually comprehensive commercial opportunity assessments within Europe and global markets.